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Wisconsin basketball’s remaining game-by-game win probabilities

The Wisconsin Badgers are off to an impressive start to the 2020-21 season, sitting at 10-2 (4-1 Big Ten) heading into the heart of their conference play.

Even the team’s two losses, those coming against Maryland and Marquette, were games that the team most likely should’ve won. But still, their blowout win against then-No. 23 Louisville, victory against then-No. 12 Michigan State and solid win against then-No. 21 Minnesota won’t mean much when No. 10 Michigan, No. 5 Iowa and No. 12 Illinois show up on the schedule.

The Badgers’ double-overtime win over Indiana was significant for the team as it kept them near the top of the Big Ten standings and kept their momentum going entering Tuesday’s battle with the Wolverines.

It also showed continued resilience from the team and gave the platform for D’Mitrik Trice to show the star that he has become.

Related: What Indiana HC Archie Miller said about Wisconsin basketball after the game

The gauntlet that is the 2020-21 Big Ten basketball schedule is in progress for the Badgers, though the road ahead has a chance to be a really rocky one.

ESPN.com lists win probabilities for each of those remaining games on their Big Ten schedule and although these odds are set to change as the season progresses, it’s interesting to look at where the team stands at this point compared to their conference foes.

Here is their updated ESPN game-by-game win probabilities and the team’s predicted record for the remainder of the season:

Tuesday, Jan. 12, at Michigan

Mandatory Credit: Junfu Han-USA TODAY Sports

Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Michigan
Badgers Win Probability: 44.2%
Running predictive record: 10-3 (4-2 Big Ten)

Friday, Jan. 15, at Rutgers

Mandatory Credit: Catalina Fragoso-USA TODAY Sports

Rutgers Athletic Center (Piscataway, NJ)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 61.1%
Running predictive record: 11-3 (5-2 Big Ten)

Saturday, Jan. 23, vs. Ohio State

Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Kohl Center (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 68.9%
Running predictive record: 12-3 (6-2 Big Ten)

Wednesday, Jan. 27, vs. Northwestern

Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

Kohl Center (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 82.5%
Running predictive record: 13-3 (7-2 Big Ten)

Saturday, Jan. 30, at Maryland

Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

XFINITY Center (College Park, Maryland)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 66.6%
Running predictive record: 14-3 (8-2 Big Ten)

Tuesday, Feb. 2, vs. Penn State

Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Kohl Center (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 80.7%
Running predictive record: 15-3 (9-2 Big Ten)

Saturday, Feb. 6, at Illinois

Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

State Farm Center (Champaign, Illinois)

Predicted Winner: Illinois
Badgers Win Probability: 42.1%
Running predictive record: 15-4 (9-3 Big Ten)

Thursday, Feb. 11, at Nebraska

Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Pinnacle Bank Arena (Lincoln, Nebraska)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 82.6%
Running predictive record: 16-4 (10-3 Big Ten)

Sunday, Feb. 14, vs. Michigan

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Kohl Center (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 60.7%
Running predictive record: 17-4 (11-3 Big Ten)

Thursday, Feb. 18, vs. Iowa

Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Kohl Center (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted Winner: Iowa
Badgers Win Probability: 42.9%
Running predictive record: 17-5 (11-4 Big Ten)

Sunday, Feb. 21, at Northwestern

Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, Illinois)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 71.1%
Running predictive record: 18-5 (12-4 Big Ten)

Saturday, Feb. 27, vs. Illinois

Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Kohl Center (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 53.3%
Running predictive record: 19-5 (13-4 Big Ten)

Tuesday, Mar. 2, at Purdue

Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Mackey Arena (West Lafayette, Indiana)

Predicted Winner: Wisconsin
Badgers Win Probability: 62.4%
Running predictive record: 20-5 (14-4 Big Ten)

Sunday, Mar. 7, at Iowa

Credit: Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen-Imagn Content Services, LLC

Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)

Predicted Winner: Iowa
Badgers Win Probability: 23.1%
Running predictive record: 20-6 (14-5 Big Ten)

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